Selected Articles

The New Population Bomb: Five Population Megatrends that will Shape the Global Future.” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010.

Rise of the TIMBIs.” Foreign Policy, Dec 2, 2o12

Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies”  Foreign Affairs May/June 2011

“What if China’s Economic Expansion is About to End?”  Washington Post April 14, 2011

“The Ballot and the Badge: Democratic Policing” (with Michael D. Wiatrowski)  Journal of Democracy – Volume 21, Number 2, April 2010, pp. 79-92

Modern Revolutions? Yes they are.” Harvard International Review Web-exclusive. 2008.



Foreign Policy Bulletin. Goldstone, J. A., Fandl, K., and Wolff, A., eds. Cambridge University Press, 2006-.


Articles and Chapters in Books

forthcoming. “Demography and Security.” In The Development-Security Connection, eds. Joanna Spear and Paul Williams. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press.

forthcoming. “Revolutions.” In International Encyclopedia of Political Science, ed. George T. Kurian. Washington, DC: CQ Press.

forthcoming.  “Demography.” In Encyclopedia of the Ancien Regime, ed. William Doyle. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

forthcoming.  “The Seventeenth Century Revolutions and Iberian Decline: Nationalism, Trade, coming Innovation, and the Varieties of Faith.” In The Portuguese Restauração and Seventeenth-Century Revolution, Diogo Curto, ed. Florence: Leo S. Olshki.

forthcoming.  “Protest and Repression in Democracies and Autocracies: Europe, Iran, Thailand, and the Middle East, 2010-2011.” In Collective Violence, eds. Seraphim Sepheriades and Hank Johnston. Ashgate.

2011 “How Opportunistic?: Peasant Revolts in the French Revolution 1789-1793.”
In Contention in Context: Political Opportunities and the Emergence of Protest.
eds. Jeff Goodwin and James A. Jasper. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Pp. 37-58.

2011 “An Accelerating Divergence?: Comment.” Canadian Journal of Sociology 36(2):

2011 “Pragmatism and Ideology in Revolutionary Leadership (A Structuralist Revisits
the Self)” North Central Sociological Association 2011 Ruth and John Useem Plenary Address. Sociological Focus 20:184-193.

2011 “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle
Eastern Autocracies.” Foreign Affairs 90 (May/June): 8-16.

2011 “The Social Origins of the French Revolution Revisited.” In From Deficit to
Deluge: The Origins of the French Revolution, ed. Dale van Kley and Thomas Kaiser. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, pp. 67-103.

2011 “Capitalism.” Berkshire Encyclopedia of World History, 2nd edition, eds.
William H. McNeill, Jerry Bentley, and David Christian, Vol. II, pp. 456-462.

2010 “New Patterns in Global History A Review of Strange Parallels: Southeast Asia in
Global Context, c. 800-1830, volume 2: Mainland Mirrors: Europe, Japan, China, South Asia, and the Islands by Victor Lieberman (Cambridge University Press, 2009).” Cliodynamics, Vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 92-102.

2010 “Conflict Among Civilizations – 500 BC – 2030 A.D.” In Bulletin 2009, World Public Forum “Dialogue of Civilizations.” Pp. 215-226.

2010 “From Structure to Agency to Process: The Evolution of Charles Tilly’s Theories of
Social Action as Reflected in His Contentious Politics.” American Sociologist 41:

2010 “Population Movements and Conflict.” In The International Studies Encyclopedia,
ed. Robert A. Denemark. Chichester, West Sussex: Wiley-Blackwell. Vol. IX, pp.

2010 “Democratic Policing and Democratic Development.” Journal of Democracy,
21: 79-92.

2010 “The New Population Bomb: Four Population Megatrends that will Shape the
Global Future.” Foreign Affairs¸ Jan/Feb, pp. 31-43.

2010 “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” American Journal of Political Science, 54: 190-208 (with Robert Bates, David Epstein, Michael Lustik, Monty Marshall, Jay Ulfelder and Mark Woodward).

2009 “Engineering Culture, Innovation and Modern Wealth Creation” in Entrepreneurship and Innovations in Functional Regions, eds. Charlie Karlsson,
Brje Johansson, and Roger R. Stough. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, pp. 21-49.

2009 “From Sociology and Economics to World History.” Österreichische Zeitschrift
für Geschichtswissenschaften [Austrian Journal of Historical Sciences] 20 (2):

2009 “Efflorescences et croissance économique dans l‟histoire globale: une
réinterprétation de l‟essor de l‟Occident et de la révolution industrielle.” In Histoire globale, mondialisations, et capitalisme, Philippe Beaujard, Laurent Berger, and Philippe Norel, eds. Paris: Editions La Decouverte, pp. 299-334.

2009 “Revolutions.” In The Sage Handbook of Comparative Politics, eds. Todd Landman and Neil Robinson. Los Angeles: Sage, pp. 319-347.

2009 “Demography and Security.” In Perspectives on Political and Social Regional
Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context. Compiled by Rosa Affleck, Rose Rainey, and Deborah Pyle for the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Research and Development Directorate (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Defense Department), pp. 32-43.

2009 “Flash Points and Tipping Points: Security Implications of Global Population Changes.” Environmental Change and Security Project Report¸ no. 13: 2-9.

2009 “Rethinking Revolutions: Integrating Origins, Processes, and Outcomes,”
Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, vol. 29: 8-32.

2008 “Europe‟s Brave New World: Security Implications of Global Population Changes
2007-2050.” European View 7:319-332.

2008 “Sociology and Political Science: Learning and Challenges.” In The Frontiers of Sociology, Peter Hedstrom and Bjorn Wittrock, eds. Amsterdam: Brill, pp. 59-66.

2008 “Ancient states, empires and exploitation: problems and perspectives,” with John F. Haldon. In Dynamics of Ancient Empires: State Power from Assyria to
Byzantium, Ian Morris and Walter Scheidel. eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1-29.

2008 “Bully for Prediction” Sociological Methodology 38: 59-65.

2008 “Modern Revolutions? Yes they are.” Harvard International Review

2008 “Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability.” US Institute of Peace Special Report 204 (March), 16 pp. [Turkish Translation in Istanbul
Commerce University Social Sciences Journal, 2008]

2008 “Pathways to State Failure.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 25: 285-296.

2008 “Capitalist Origins, the Advent of Modernity, and Coherent Explanation.” Canadian Journal of Sociology/Cahiers canadiens de sociologie 33: 119-133.

2008 “Revolution,” in The International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (2nd edition). ed. William A. Darity, Jr., vol. 7. Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA,
pp. 228-231.